In a fresh blow to Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s ambitions for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, a new poll from Echelon Insights conducted between July 10 and July 14, 2025, reveals a shifting landscape among Democratic primary voters.

The survey, which gauged preferences more than three years before the next presidential election, shows Ocasio-Cortez slipping to fifth place with just 6% support, a two-point drop from previous results.

This decline comes amid a crowded field of potential candidates, with Vice President Kamala Harris maintaining her lead despite a dip in support, and California Governor Gavin Newsom emerging as a significant gainer.

The poll underscores the challenges Ocasio-Cortez faces as she navigates her association with controversial figures like Zohran Mamdani and competes against more established names in a fragmented Democratic Party still searching for direction after its 2024 election loss.

The Echelon Insights poll, conducted among likely Democratic primary voters, offers a glimpse into the early dynamics of the 2028 presidential race. Vice President Kamala Harris remains the frontrunner, securing 26% of the vote, though this represents a notable six-point decline from her previous standing.

Her sustained lead reflects her high name recognition as the 2024 Democratic nominee, despite the party’s defeat to President Donald Trump. However, the dip in her support suggests that her grip on the party’s base may be loosening as new contenders emerge.

Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg holds steady in second place with 11% support, a modest one-point increase from the prior poll. Buttigieg, who ran for the Democratic nomination in 2020, continues to appeal to a segment of voters seeking a younger, pragmatic voice, though his limited growth indicates challenges in expanding his base.

The poll’s standout performer is California Governor Gavin Newsom, who surged five points to 10% support. Newsom’s recent efforts to reposition himself as a moderate through a high-profile podcast tour appear to be resonating, particularly among voters wary of the party’s progressive wing.

Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey, a surprise contender, captured 7% of the vote, placing him fourth. Booker’s unexpected rise, despite an unsuccessful 2020 presidential bid, may be attributed to his increased visibility following a record-breaking Senate floor speech opposing Trump’s agenda in April 2025.

His performance suggests a potential resurgence, though his ability to sustain momentum remains uncertain.

Ocasio-Cortez, often referred to as AOC, saw her support fall to 6%, a decline from her stronger showing in a recent Quantus Insights poll where she led the field.

Her fifth-place finish places her behind Harris, Buttigieg, Newsom, and Booker, signaling a setback in her bid to establish herself as the progressive standard-bearer for 2028.

Other notable figures in the poll include Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro with 4% support, up two points, and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, and businessman Mark Cuban, each at 3%.

Governors Andy Beshear of Kentucky and JB Pritzker of Illinois, along with Senators Chris Murphy and John Fetterman, each garnered 2%, while a handful of others, including Maryland Governor Wes Moore, Representative Jasmine Crockett, Senator Raphael Warnock, Jon Stewart, and Stephen A. Smith, received 1% or less.

Ocasio-Cortez’s drop in the polls coincides with her high-profile support for Zohran Mamdani, the polarizing New York City mayoral candidate whose democratic socialist platform has drawn national scrutiny.

Mamdani, who won the Democratic primary in June 2025, has sparked controversy with policies advocating for redistributing the city’s tax burden to wealthier neighborhoods and abolishing the tax lien auction system.

Ocasio-Cortez’s vocal endorsement of Mamdani, including appearances at multiple rallies, has tied her closely to his divisive agenda, which critics argue alienates moderate Democrats and risks undermining her broader appeal.

As a leading figure in the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, Ocasio-Cortez has built a national following through her “Fighting Oligarchy” tour with Senator Bernie Sanders, which has drawn tens of thousands of supporters across red and blue states.

Her charisma, social media savvy, and unapologetic advocacy for policies like the Green New Deal and Medicare for All have made her a powerful voice among younger and progressive voters.

However, her association with Mamdani, whom critics have labeled as overly radical, may be dampening her momentum at a critical juncture. The Echelon Insights poll suggests that while Ocasio-Cortez retains fervent support—13% of Harris supporters named her as their second choice—her broader appeal may be constrained by perceptions of ideological extremism.

The 2028 Democratic primary field is shaping up to be highly competitive, with no candidate yet commanding a dominant lead. Kamala Harris’s 26% support reflects her enduring name recognition, but her six-point drop indicates vulnerabilities, particularly as speculation mounts about a potential 2026 run for California governor.

If Harris opts for a gubernatorial bid, the field could open further, creating opportunities for contenders like Buttigieg, Newsom, and Booker to gain ground.

Newsom’s recent surge highlights his strategic repositioning as a moderate, a departure from his earlier progressive stances. His podcast tour, which emphasizes pragmatic governance and economic solutions, has helped him appeal to voters seeking a less polarizing figure than Ocasio-Cortez or Sanders.

Buttigieg, meanwhile, benefits from his experience as a 2020 candidate and his role as a prominent Biden administration official, though his 6% second-choice support among Harris voters suggests a ceiling on his appeal.

Booker’s fourth-place finish is a notable development, driven in part by his recent high-profile opposition to Trump’s policies. His marathon Senate speech in April 2025, which broke records for duration, has positioned him as a vocal critic of the MAGA agenda, resonating with voters eager for a fighter.

However, his 2020 campaign’s failure to gain traction raises questions about his ability to build a broad coalition.

Josh Shapiro’s modest 4% support reflects his growing profile as a swing-state governor with a reputation for bipartisan governance. His high favorability in Pennsylvania, a critical battleground state, makes him a potential dark horse, particularly if Democrats prioritize electability in 2028.

Other governors like Walz, Whitmer, Beshear, and Pritzker, while polling lower, remain viable contenders, with each leveraging their state-level successes to build national profiles.

Ocasio-Cortez’s decline in the Echelon Insights poll raises questions about her path forward as a potential presidential candidate. At 35, she remains one of the youngest and most dynamic figures in the Democratic Party, with a proven ability to mobilize progressive voters and raise significant funds—her campaign reported a record-breaking $9.6 million haul in the first quarter of 2025, driven by small-dollar donations.

Her “Fighting Oligarchy” tour with Sanders has drawn massive crowds, with over 36,000 attendees in Los Angeles alone, signaling her ability to energize the base.

However, the poll suggests that Ocasio-Cortez faces challenges in broadening her appeal beyond her progressive core. Critics, including former Obama staffer Denny Salas, argue that her focus on anti-Trump rhetoric and progressive ideals risks alienating working-class and moderate voters.

Her support for Mamdani, whose policies have been criticized as divisive, may further complicate her efforts to build a coalition capable of winning a national primary.

Additionally, some within the party view her as too far left, a perception reinforced by her advocacy for policies like Medicare for All and her criticism of Democratic leadership, including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.

Speculation about Ocasio-Cortez’s future also includes a potential 2028 Senate run against Schumer, with polls showing her leading him by double digits in a hypothetical New York primary.

This option could allow her to consolidate power within the state before considering a presidential bid, though it risks further alienating establishment Democrats wary of her progressive agenda.

The Echelon Insights poll reflects a Democratic Party grappling with its identity after the 2024 election loss. With no clear frontrunner, the 2028 primary is shaping up as a contest between progressive firebrands like Ocasio-Cortez, pragmatic moderates like Buttigieg and Shapiro, and ambitious governors like Newsom and Whitmer.

The party’s base appears divided, with 58% prioritizing a nominee who can win the general election over one who aligns with their ideological views, according to a YouGov/The Economist poll.

The poll’s second-choice results offer additional insight: Walz’s 14% support among Harris voters suggests his appeal as a Midwestern progressive, while Ocasio-Cortez’s 13% indicates her strength among the party’s left wing. Buttigieg’s lower second-choice support underscores the need for him to expand beyond his current base.

As Democrats look to 2028, the party faces pressure to coalesce around a candidate who can challenge Trump’s legacy and appeal to a broad electorate. Ocasio-Cortez’s charisma and grassroots energy make her a formidable contender, but her recent polling slide suggests that she must navigate her progressive identity carefully to avoid alienating key voter groups.

With three years until the primaries, the race remains wide open, and Ocasio-Cortez’s ability to adapt and broaden her appeal will be critical to her presidential hopes.

The Echelon Insights poll highlights the fluid and competitive nature of the 2028 Democratic primary, with Kamala Harris leading a crowded field despite a dip in support.

Gavin Newsom’s surge and Cory Booker’s unexpected rise signal a dynamic race, while Ocasio-Cortez’s decline reflects challenges tied to her progressive stance and association with controversial figures like Mamdani.

As Democrats search for a path forward, Ocasio-Cortez’s youth, energy, and fundraising prowess keep her in the conversation, but her ability to overcome perceptions of ideological extremism will determine whether she can reclaim her position as a top contender for the 2028 nomination.