Elon Musk Confidently Declares Tesla Will Crush Nvidia with a $10,000,000,000,000 Market Cap

Elon Musk has never been one to shy away from ambitious predictions, but his latest claim may be his most staggering yet. Speaking with trademark confidence, Musk declared that Tesla could one day reach a market capitalization of $10 trillion—yes, ten trillion dollars—dwarfing the current combined valuation of tech giants like Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft. At present, Tesla’s market cap hovers around $900 billion, which means Musk envisions the stock multiplying more than tenfold.

While such a statement may sound visionary to some, others see it as a detached leap from economic reality. Nonetheless, it reignites the debate over what Tesla is, what it might become, and how far optimism can carry a company facing slowing growth and growing competition.

Tesla, once the darling of Wall Street and retail investors alike, is currently struggling on several fronts. The company’s once-rampant automotive growth has stalled. Vehicle deliveries for Q1 dropped 13% year over year, falling to 337,000.

Meanwhile, revenue from the automotive division has plummeted by 20%, falling even faster than the decline in deliveries due to the aggressive price cuts Tesla implemented to stimulate demand. But even slashing prices hasn’t prevented customers from fleeing to competitors.

In China, BYD is dominating the EV segment; in Europe and the U.S., legacy automakers are catching up with credible EV offerings. As Tesla’s lead narrows, its image as a tech-driven disruptor becomes harder to maintain.

Profit margins, once Tesla’s badge of honor, are now another sore point. Over the last twelve months, Tesla’s operating margin shrank to just 7.4%, a steep drop from its earlier highs. As prices fall and sales wane, it becomes increasingly difficult to keep margins intact. The cost structure remains high, and without new high-demand models, there’s little reason to expect a quick turnaround.

The much-anticipated Cybertruck, once hyped as a revolutionary leap in design and performance, has thus far flopped. Production delays, quality concerns, and muted consumer reception have rendered it a non-factor in Tesla’s growth trajectory.

Even worse, Tesla doesn’t appear to have a new hit vehicle in the pipeline. Despite years of promises, Tesla has failed to launch a robotaxi fleet or produce a meaningful number of fully autonomous vehicles. Its Full Self-Driving (FSD) software is still in beta, frequently criticized for safety issues and regulatory hurdles.

Meanwhile, competitors like Alphabet’s Waymo are already offering tens of thousands of autonomous rides each week in select U.S. cities. Tesla’s vision for a self-driving future remains tantalizing but elusive.

So, where does Musk see the ten trillion dollars coming from? Enter Tesla Optimus—the humanoid robot Musk claims will revolutionize labor, productivity, and global economics. Musk envisions a world in which Tesla builds 100 million humanoid robots, each priced at $100,000, creating a $10 trillion market.

According to Musk, these robots, powered by AI, will perform physical tasks for humans, ushering in a new era of productivity.

This projection, however, raises eyebrows even among Tesla’s most loyal investors. To date, Tesla has not demonstrated a fully functional autonomous robot. The units shown at past events have been controlled remotely, performing highly limited tasks.

Building 100 robots would be a significant milestone; manufacturing 100 million annually is a scale beyond comprehension. Moreover, even if such robots existed and were affordable, the demand for them is unclear. It’s doubtful that households and corporations would buy humanoid bots en masse, particularly in the absence of a proven use case or operational success.

Despite all these headwinds, Musk continues to paint Tesla as a hybrid of Apple, Toyota, and Boston Dynamics—combining automotive might, software excellence, and robotics innovation into one unstoppable force. But even the most bullish investors must grapple with current valuations.

Tesla trades at a staggering price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 150. For context, Toyota, one of the world’s most successful automakers, trades at a P/E closer to 10. Such a disparity might be justified if Tesla were growing revenue at 40% annually with expanding margins. Instead, it’s shrinking in both areas.

What this means is that much of Tesla’s current valuation is built not on what it is, but on what it might one day become. Investors are pricing in decades of future success—robotaxis, energy dominance, robotics—and ignoring the present-day struggles of its core business. As auto sales decline in Tesla’s largest markets and new models remain elusive, the gap between vision and reality becomes harder to ignore. 

And while hope can be a powerful motivator in markets, it is not a substitute for execution.

Musk has always been a master of storytelling. From Mars colonization to brain-computer interfaces, he has managed to maintain investor enthusiasm through grand visions. But Tesla is not SpaceX or Neuralink. It is, fundamentally, a car company. And car companies are capital-intensive, cyclical, and subject to fierce competition.

Without a breakout product or technological edge, Tesla risks being just another premium automaker—albeit one with an incredibly high stock price.

And that price remains a sticking point for many analysts. Even with the recent drop, Tesla’s stock remains expensive by almost every fundamental metric. While Musk’s $10 trillion dream may rally the faithful, it won’t generate earnings or deliver vehicles. Investors are slowly coming to terms with the reality that the Tesla of 2025 is not the growth juggernaut of the past decade.

With no clear catalysts on the horizon, the stock may have a hard time climbing back to previous highs, let alone multiplying tenfold.

Some bulls argue that the Optimus robot, Cybercab, or Tesla’s AI capabilities could eventually pay off. But even if these moonshots succeed, the timeline is unclear and the execution risk is enormous. Meanwhile, investors who buy today are paying a premium for unproven dreams. In finance, this is the definition of speculation.

So should investors buy Tesla now, betting on Musk’s $10 trillion dream? The answer depends on one’s appetite for risk and belief in Elon Musk’s vision. For many, it might be wiser to wait for proof of concept before buying into the future.

The most valuable companies in history—Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia—earned their valuations through years of consistent execution, product success, and financial discipline. Tesla will need to show the same qualities if it hopes to earn a place among them.

Until then, the hard truth is this: Tesla is struggling, not surging. Its automotive business is in decline. Its promises are aspirational at best. And its valuation is built more on hope than results. Investors would do well to remember that before diving headfirst into Musk’s most ambitious dream yet.