As the 2026 midterm elections loom, CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten has raised concerns for the Democratic Party, highlighting troubling trends that may put them at a disadvantage.
Despite President Joe Biden’s approval rating and ongoing discussions around the performance of the Republican Party, Enten’s analysis shows that Democrats may face a tough battle in key issues heading into the next election cycle.
In a segment on “CNN News Central,” Enten referred to a recent poll conducted by The Washington Post and Ipsos between September 11 and September 15.
The results from the poll revealed a significant shift in favor of the Republican Party on several pivotal issues, providing key insights into the potential landscape of the upcoming midterm elections.
According to the data, Republicans currently lead Democrats by 7% on the economy, 13% on immigration, and a staggering 22% on crime.
These numbers are particularly alarming for the Democrats, as these issues have traditionally been central to the party’s platform. The economy, in particular, has been a battleground where Democrats have been trying to promote their successes, such as job growth and unemployment reductions during Biden's tenure.
However, the polling data suggests that the GOP has successfully gained the upper hand in shaping public opinion on these critical issues.
Enten’s warning is clear: Democrats should not be overly reassured by former President Biden’s standing in the polls or the current low approval ratings of President Trump.
While Trump’s polling numbers remain underwhelming, the broader political landscape, according to Enten, may still favor the Republicans in crucial battlegrounds, especially when it comes to issues like the economy, immigration, and crime—issues that resonate deeply with voters in key districts.
The situation echoes the 2022 midterms when the Republicans managed to secure control of the House of Representatives despite losing the Senate.
Even with high-profile figures like Trump in the spotlight and an ongoing debate around inflation and economic recovery, the GOP was able to galvanize support among voters who felt that the Democrats were not effectively addressing their concerns.
Enten pointed out that the issue of immigration has been one of the most contentious in recent years, particularly among voters in swing states. The perception that the Democratic Party has not done enough to secure the border and manage immigration effectively has given Republicans a considerable advantage.
The GOP has seized on this, portraying Democrats as weak on border security, and the polling data supports this framing. The 13% lead Republicans hold over Democrats on immigration is a significant indicator that voters may be favoring the GOP’s tough stance on this issue.
Furthermore, crime is another issue where the GOP is outpacing the Democrats by a significant margin, with Republicans holding a 22% lead. This is particularly notable as crime rates have been a topic of debate in cities across the country, with concerns about rising violence and the effectiveness of law enforcement.
Republicans have capitalized on fears surrounding crime, positioning themselves as the party of law and order, while Democrats have struggled to present a clear counter-narrative.
Enten explained that while the Biden administration has worked to address systemic issues within the criminal justice system, the party has faced significant challenges in convincing voters that they can effectively reduce crime without compromising civil liberties.
Despite the troubling numbers, Enten noted that there are some areas where the Democratic Party still holds an advantage. For instance, Democrats are seen as more favorable on issues related to healthcare, climate change, and social justice.
However, as Enten pointed out, these issues are not necessarily as central to the midterm elections as the economy, crime, and immigration. The voters’ concerns over pocketbook issues and public safety tend to outweigh concerns over healthcare or environmental policy, especially during a time of economic uncertainty.
With these findings in mind, Enten urged Democrats to reconsider their strategy heading into the 2026 midterms. He emphasized the importance of addressing the key concerns of voters head-on, rather than relying solely on the image of Donald Trump as a polarizing figure.
While Trump’s low approval ratings may make it easy for Democrats to focus on his unpopularity, Enten stressed that they must offer solutions to the pressing issues that voters care about most.
The 2026 midterms will not only be crucial for determining the balance of power in Congress, but they will also set the stage for the 2028 presidential election.
The outcome of these midterms could shape the direction of the Democratic Party and its future prospects, particularly if the GOP manages to maintain its momentum on issues like crime, the economy, and immigration.
For Democrats, Enten’s analysis serves as a warning that complacency could cost them the support of key voters, particularly those in battleground states where these issues are front and center.
The Democratic Party must address the concerns raised by these polls and adjust their messaging to reconnect with the electorate, especially among suburban voters and independents who have shown increasing support for the Republican Party on these critical issues.
Enten also warned that the Democrats’ reliance on messaging around Trump and the January 6 insurrection may no longer be as effective in swaying voters who are more concerned about their immediate economic future and personal safety.
With inflation and rising costs still affecting many Americans, it is crucial for Democrats to focus on solutions that directly address these concerns.
Otherwise, the GOP could continue to dominate the conversation around the economy and law enforcement, putting the Democrats at a severe disadvantage.
One thing is certain: the road to 2026 will not be an easy one for the Democratic Party. With a deeply divided electorate and rising concerns over crime, immigration, and economic stability, the party faces an uphill battle to retain control of Congress.
Enten’s analysis suggests that while the Democrats may have a path forward, they will need to adjust their approach and offer more concrete solutions to the issues that matter most to voters.
Looking ahead, it will be essential for the Democratic Party to craft a message that resonates with both their base and independent voters. They must shift the narrative away from Trump and focus on the real issues that voters care about, particularly economic growth, crime reduction, and immigration reform.
If they can successfully pivot to these issues and demonstrate a willingness to tackle them head-on, they may yet be able to turn the tide in their favor before the 2026 elections.
Ultimately, Harry Enten’s analysis serves as a wake-up call for the Democrats, reminding them that while their challenges may seem insurmountable, they are not without hope.
With a focused and strategic approach, the party can still recover from these early polling setbacks and mount a strong challenge against the Republicans in the coming years.
However, the time for complacency has passed, and the Democrats must be prepared to fight for every vote if they hope to secure victory in 2026.
