As the 2026 Senate race in Alaska heats up, former Representative Mary Peltola (D-AK) finds herself facing an uphill battle to secure the Senate seat currently held by Republican Senator Dan Sullivan.
Peltola, once a beacon of bipartisan cooperation and the first Alaska Native to serve in Congress, is being heavily courted by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) to expand the Democratic Party’s map in a race that could be crucial for the party’s chances of regaining the Senate majority.
However, new polling indicates that Peltola may struggle to unseat the popular incumbent, who has built a significant following in the state.
Peltola, who served Alaska’s at-large congressional district until she lost in the most recent election, is being seen by Schumer and Democratic strategists as one of the party’s top recruits for the 2026 Senate race.
However, despite her appeal as a moderate Democrat and her unique position as a Native Alaskan politician, the latest data shows a challenging path ahead for her campaign.
A new memo from Alaska Survey Research reveals that Peltola would start the race trailing Sullivan by 5 percentage points, with the Republican incumbent leading the Democrat 47% to 42%.
The survey, which polled 2,053 Alaskans from July 29 to August 1, showed that 11% of voters remained undecided, leaving room for a competitive contest, but it also highlighted the challenges Peltola will face in her bid for higher office.
While Peltola’s name recognition and moderate political stance may help her appeal to some voters, the polling suggests that Sullivan is in a strong position to defend his seat.
As a seasoned politician who has represented Alaska in the Senate since 2015, Sullivan has a significant advantage when it comes to established voter loyalty.
His popularity remains strong across the state, and the survey numbers indicate that he could maintain his edge even as Peltola attempts to build a coalition of Democratic voters and independents.
In contrast to Peltola’s 42%, Sullivan commands a 47% lead, which, though not overwhelming, indicates that the incumbent holds a solid base of support.
Additionally, the 11% undecided voters in the poll reflect the possibility of shifting dynamics as the campaign season progresses. Peltola will have to work hard to appeal to this crucial group if she hopes to close the gap and potentially overcome Sullivan’s lead.
This race marks a critical test for the Democratic Party’s ability to expand its reach in Alaska, a state that has historically leaned Republican in federal elections. The state’s unique political landscape, with its combination of rural and urban areas, presents both challenges and opportunities for a Democratic candidate.
Peltola’s past success in the House, where she was able to win a significant portion of the vote despite a divided Republican field, suggests she has the ability to appeal to voters across party lines.
However, Peltola’s path to the Senate could be complicated by her reliance on out-of-state financial support. According to recent campaign filings, the majority of her fundraising has come from outside Alaska, with 53.5% of her total haul originating from out-of-state donors.
While this might reflect a broad national interest in her candidacy, it also raises concerns about her connection to local voters. In Alaska, where the economy is heavily dependent on industries like oil and gas, fishing, and tourism, candidates who are seen as beholden to out-of-state interests may struggle to gain the trust of local voters.
Peltola’s fundraising figures are part of a broader trend seen in the 2026 Senate race, where several candidates have relied heavily on national fundraising networks.
Even former Governor Andrew Cuomo, who is considering a run for Senate, reported that 52% of his donations came from outside New York City. The influx of out-of-state money in these races has sparked concerns about the influence of national donors on local elections, especially when it comes to candidates trying to build a connection with their state’s electorate.
Peltola, however, is not alone in facing these challenges. Among her competitors, even veteran political figures like Andrew Cuomo are encountering similar hurdles.
Despite his decades of political experience and his extensive network of donors, Cuomo is still struggling to connect with New York voters who are increasingly wary of candidates backed by national interests.
This dynamic is particularly relevant in Alaska, where political loyalty is often tied to the state’s unique issues and local concerns.
As Peltola prepares for a potential Senate run, she has also launched a city-wide canvassing initiative to demonstrate her commitment to Alaska’s voters. Her campaign claims that over 2,000 volunteers have knocked on more than 50,000 doors, a grassroots effort aimed at showing that her support comes from within the state.
Despite the concerns about out-of-state money, Peltola’s campaign is emphasizing its local connections, hoping to prove that it is truly grounded in the needs and concerns of Alaskans.
However, the reliance on outside support has remained a point of contention. In response to concerns, Peltola’s campaign spokesperson, Dora Pekec, expressed confidence in the grassroots nature of her candidacy, declaring, “With over 50,000 volunteers, thousands of small-dollar donors, and genuine enthusiasm for Zohran’s vision for a more affordable New York City, our momentum is surging.”
While this statement reflects the campaign’s attempt to paint itself as a people-powered effort, the reality is that Peltola’s financial support is heavily influenced by national donors, complicating her narrative.
Despite these challenges, Peltola is far from giving up. She has made clear her desire to represent Alaska’s unique interests and to serve as a voice for the state’s diverse communities.
In recent interviews, Peltola has emphasized the importance of preserving Alaska’s natural resources and ensuring that local communities have a say in decisions that directly affect them.
Her position on issues like climate change, energy policy, and healthcare aligns with progressive values but also reflects her understanding of the state’s unique political landscape.
Her ability to connect with young voters will likely play a key role in determining her success in the race. In the past, young Alaskan voters have been a significant part of Peltola’s support base, and her ability to mobilize this group could be pivotal in closing the gap with Sullivan.
Whether Peltola can overcome the challenges posed by Sullivan’s incumbency and the perception that her campaign is funded by out-of-state interests remains to be seen.
Peltola’s race against Sullivan is still in its early stages, and much can change as the election approaches. Despite her current polling disadvantage, Peltola’s campaign has the potential to grow, particularly if she can build on the grassroots support she has cultivated in the past.
As her candidacy continues to unfold, it will be interesting to see whether she can bridge the gap between her national fundraising efforts and her appeal to local voters in Alaska. If she succeeds, Peltola may yet become a formidable contender in the 2026 Senate race, despite the challenging political landscape she faces.
Alaska Survey Research poll | 7/29-8/1
— Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 (@PollTracker2024) August 25, 2025
Alaska Senate
🟥Dan Sullivan 47%
🟦Mary Peltola 42%
Undecided 11%
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President Trump approval (Alaska)
Disapprove 50%
Approve 41%https://t.co/y2EGm5yZLl
