Powell Hints at Possible Rate Cuts Following Economic Risks

   

Fed's Powell hints at early rate cut. Dow surges 870 points, Nasdaq 420;  Cboe drops 12% - The Economic Times

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted on Friday that interest rate cuts might be on the horizon, following an economic speech at the Fed’s annual Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

The news provided Wall Street with a significant boost as Powell suggested that policymakers could soon make adjustments due to the shifting economic conditions. This development has generated excitement on Wall Street, with major indexes posting significant gains in response.

Powell’s remarks reflected a change in the outlook of the Federal Reserve regarding the balance of risks between maintaining low unemployment and achieving stable prices.

He emphasized that while the economy is in a strong position, risks remain, particularly in the labor market. His comments shed light on the evolving nature of monetary policy and its potential to impact economic growth in the coming months.

During his speech, Powell acknowledged that the economy has made significant strides, citing the labor market's performance and broader economic conditions as factors that contribute to overall optimism.

"The balance of risks appears to be shifting," Powell said, referring to the current interplay between two key goals of economic policy: full employment and price stability.

The chairman expressed confidence in the strength of the labor market, which has remained robust despite the challenges posed by global trade tensions and domestic economic policies, such as tariffs imposed during the Trump administration.

The tariffs have had a range of economic consequences, with Powell highlighting their potential impact on inflation. Although he noted that tariffs have helped to secure a strong labor market, he also acknowledged that they carry risks, particularly the potential to drive inflation higher than anticipated.

 

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His comments signaled to the market that the Fed may be considering actions to address any adverse economic effects, particularly in relation to rising inflation.

Powell stressed that if these risks—especially inflationary pressures—materialize, the Fed will have to take them into account when determining future policy adjustments.

Following Powell’s speech, the stock market saw an immediate and substantial uptick. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged by more than 2%, while the Nasdaq Composite also experienced a sharp gain. The S&P 500 index rose by over 1.5%, signaling that investors viewed Powell’s remarks positively.

The market’s positive response to Powell's suggestion that rate cuts might be forthcoming indicates that investors are eager for more accommodative monetary policies.

The speculation of potential interest rate reductions seems to have reassured investors who have been concerned about the slowing pace of economic growth and the potential impact of higher borrowing costs.

Interest rate cuts generally stimulate economic activity by making borrowing cheaper for businesses and consumers, which can increase spending and investment. A rate reduction could also boost sectors such as real estate and consumer spending, providing an overall boost to the economy.

Despite the optimistic outlook, Powell warned of risks that could derail the economic recovery. In his speech, he referred to the current state of the economy as an "unusual situation," given that the country is facing a tight labor market but also dealing with the uncertainties of inflation and potential economic shocks.

He cautioned that the risk of a worsened labor market could arise quickly, noting that it could materialize in the form of "sharply higher layoffs and rising unemployment."

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Powell’s acknowledgment of these risks reflects the complex nature of the Federal Reserve’s decision-making process. While the labor market has been resilient, the potential for a downturn or a slowdown in hiring could alter the economic landscape in a matter of months.

Such a shift would require the Fed to reassess its approach to interest rates and other monetary policies.

One of the key challenges the Federal Reserve faces is balancing the goal of full employment with its mandate to keep inflation in check. Powell pointed to the year-over-year inflation rate of 2.7%, which remains slightly above the Fed’s target of 2%.

This discrepancy means that while the labor market appears strong, inflationary pressures still exist, complicating the Fed’s ability to adjust interest rates freely.

Typically, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to combat inflation by cooling down consumer demand and slowing economic growth. However, Powell’s remarks indicate that the Fed is wary of overcorrecting by increasing rates too aggressively, which could lead to higher unemployment rates.

With inflation still hovering above the target rate, Powell suggested that the Fed may soon need to take action to ensure inflation does not continue to rise unchecked.

The next inflation report, scheduled for release on September 11, will be crucial in determining whether the Fed takes additional steps. Following that report, the Fed will meet again on September 16-17 to discuss the state of the economy and the appropriate course of action.

President Donald Trump has been an outspoken critic of Jerome Powell’s handling of interest rates, and his comments continue to influence the public discourse around the Federal Reserve’s policies.

Fed expected to hold rates steady despite Trump's calls for deep cuts | Fox  Business

For months, Trump has expressed frustration that the Fed has not been more aggressive in cutting rates, arguing that the central bank is hindering economic growth by keeping rates too high.

Trump’s criticism reached a peak earlier in 2025, when he publicly threatened to remove Powell from his position. Such a move would have been unprecedented, as no sitting president has ever dismissed the chairman of the Federal Reserve.

However, Trump later backed off from the threat, stating that he would wait until Powell’s term expires in May 2026 before taking further action. Trump’s comments underscore the political pressure Powell has faced from the White House, particularly over the central bank’s decisions regarding interest rates.

Earlier in the year, Trump took to social media to argue that the Fed’s inaction on rate cuts was harming key sectors of the economy, particularly the housing industry.

“People can’t get a mortgage because of him,” Trump said, referring to Powell. “There is no inflation, and every sign is pointing to a major rate cut.” These remarks were made in the context of the housing market, which has struggled due to higher mortgage rates resulting from the Fed’s monetary policy.

Trump’s ongoing public pressure campaign against Powell highlights the political friction between the White House and the Federal Reserve, with the president urging the central bank to adopt a more aggressive stance on rate cuts.

Despite the growing calls for interest rate cuts, the Federal Reserve has largely resisted significant changes in policy. In July, the Fed decided to keep rates where they have been for some time, maintaining a cautious approach in light of the uncertain economic environment.

This decision was met with some dissent within the central bank, as two prominent Fed governors—Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller—publicly disagreed with the decision to leave rates unchanged.

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Both Bowman and Waller are seen as potential candidates to replace Powell when his term ends, and their differing views reflect the divisions within the Fed regarding the appropriate course of action.

The internal debate within the Federal Reserve underscores the challenges Powell faces as he navigates a complex economic landscape. While some members of the central bank support a more dovish approach, advocating for lower rates to stimulate growth, others argue that a more cautious approach is necessary to avoid exacerbating inflationary pressures.

Looking ahead, the path for the Federal Reserve remains uncertain. While Powell’s comments have sparked optimism among investors, the risks associated with inflation and potential economic slowdown will continue to shape the Fed’s decision-making process.

The central bank’s next steps will depend heavily on the upcoming inflation report and the economic data that follows.

As Powell navigates the challenges of balancing full employment with price stability, the market will be watching closely to see whether the Fed moves forward with rate cuts or opts to hold steady in the face of ongoing economic uncertainty.

For now, Powell’s speech and the market’s positive response suggest that the central bank is at a crossroads. The decision to lower rates could help to maintain economic growth, but it also carries the risk of further inflating an already over-heated economy. The coming months will be crucial as the Fed continues to weigh its options and respond to the shifting dynamics of the U.S. economy.