As Texas state lawmakers move forward with a sweeping redistricting plan this week, one of the most vulnerable targets in the U.S. House appears to be Democratic Rep. Greg Casar of Texas, a vocal member of the ultra-left "Squad."
The redrawing of congressional districts by Texas Republicans, designed to fortify the GOP's chances of retaining control of the House in 2026, could very well lead to Casar’s defeat in the upcoming election.
Casar, who chairs the Congressional Progressive Caucus, has been a prominent progressive figure in Washington since he first won his House seat in the 2022 midterms.
Backed by progressive icons such as U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and fellow Squad member Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), Casar gained 73% of the vote in his victory over his Republican challenger.
However, recent changes in Texas’ congressional districts could see his district eliminated or absorbed into surrounding areas, greatly diminishing his chances of reelection in 2026.
Redistricting, a process that takes place every decade following the U.S. Census, allows state legislatures to redraw the lines of congressional districts. In Texas, the GOP-controlled legislature has recently moved to redistrict with the aim of gaining an advantage in the next election cycle.
The new map released by Republicans on Wednesday suggests that Casar’s current district—the 35th—will no longer exist in its current form.
Casar’s district, which snakes through east Texas between San Antonio and Austin, was initially drawn during the 2020 redistricting process following the retirement of Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-TX).
Under the new plan, the GOP seeks to draw new district lines that favor Republicans by potentially gaining five more seats, many of which President Donald Trump won by 10 points or more in the 2024 election.
This shift in borders significantly undermines Casar’s chances of retaining his seat, and many political analysts believe that his district will likely be absorbed into more conservative-leaning areas.
The GOP’s redistricting efforts in Texas are seen as part of a broader strategy to ensure that Republicans maintain control of the U.S. House of Representatives in 2026, following what could be a difficult midterm election cycle.
By diluting Democratic-leaning districts and packing them with more Republicans, the GOP seeks to safeguard its majority and limit the power of progressive lawmakers like Casar.
Casar’s district, once a solidly blue area, could now become a battleground. The new map threatens to dismantle the support Casar has built among his progressive base in San Antonio and Austin.
While Casar may still have a significant following in some areas, the redistricting will likely divide his supporters among multiple districts, weakening his overall power in the region.
Although Casar is not as nationally recognized as other members of the "Squad" such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez or Ilhan Omar, the Texas Democrat has consistently aligned with the more radical left-wing policies pushed by his colleagues.
He has championed efforts to defund police departments and U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), advocating for the dismantling of what he views as oppressive systems of law enforcement.
These views, while popular among his progressive base, have also made him a polarizing figure, particularly in Texas, where conservatives are eager to push back against progressive policies.
His opposition to ICE in particular has fueled political battles in Texas. Casar gained national attention when he criticized ICE’s operations in San Antonio, calling their actions disturbing when he witnessed immigration authorities detaining a Venezuelan national outside a courthouse.
“I just witnessed the most disturbing government proceedings I’ve ever seen,” Casar said after a dramatic arrest during a legal proceeding.
Casar’s vocal stance on immigration and law enforcement, along with his progressive agenda, has made him a target for conservative Republicans in Texas. The redistricting process, which is already perceived as a partisan move, is expected to fuel efforts to unseat him and remove him from Congress.
Casar is not the only Democrat in Texas whose seat is threatened by the redistricting process. Several other Democratic representatives in Texas are also facing an uncertain future, particularly those in districts that are seen as more competitive following the redrawing of district lines.
Among those on the chopping block are Rep. Al Green (D-TX), whose 9th District would be dismantled as part of the redistricting, and Reps. Henry Cuellar (D-TX) and Vicente Gonzalez (D-TX) of the Rio Grande Valley.
These lawmakers, who represent heavily Latino districts, may see their constituencies shifted to more Republican-leaning areas, making their reelection bids more difficult.
Green, who was famously removed from the chamber during President Trump’s 2020 State of the Union address, has been a vocal critic of the Trump administration and is a prominent figure in Texas’ Democratic establishment.
However, with his district now being targeted by the GOP’s redistricting plans, his ability to retain his seat is in serious jeopardy.
Democratic lawmakers like Cuellar, Gonzalez, and Doggett—who represents a district anchored in Austin—are expected to face tougher races in 2026 due to the new GOP-drawn districts.
With Texas’ political landscape becoming increasingly conservative, these lawmakers may find it difficult to retain their seats, especially if the state’s Latino population, which has traditionally supported Democrats, is increasingly divided by the redistricting process.
As the GOP’s redistricting plan gains traction, some Democratic lawmakers are beginning to consider drastic measures to prevent the passage of the bill. There have been talks among liberal lawmakers about fleeing the state to prevent Republicans from achieving the necessary quorum to pass the bill.
This tactic, reminiscent of a 2003 protest by Texas House Democrats, is designed to stymie the redistricting process by denying Republicans the ability to vote on the new map.
While no official plans have been made for such an exodus, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) is reportedly heading to Austin to meet with state lawmakers in an effort to rally opposition to the GOP’s redistricting efforts.
However, despite the early rhetoric, it remains unclear whether Democrats will actually follow through on their threat to leave the state.
In the meantime, Texas Republicans are preparing to move forward with a vote on the new map as soon as Wednesday, with the plan expected to be passed by the state Senate before heading to Governor Greg Abbott’s desk for final approval. If approved, the new map will have a profound impact on the state’s political landscape and could drastically alter the makeup of Texas’ congressional delegation.
The redistricting of Texas’ congressional districts has major national implications for the 2026 elections. Texas, a key battleground state with a rapidly growing population, is crucial for both parties in their pursuit of control of the House.
The GOP-controlled redistricting effort is aimed at solidifying Republican power in the state, which could give Republicans an advantage in the next election cycle.
For Democrats, losing Texas could spell disaster for their ability to maintain control of the House of Representatives. Texas’ growing Latino population, traditionally a key voting bloc for Democrats, is seen as a critical factor in future elections. However, the GOP’s redistricting plan could dilute the impact of Latino voters and create a more favorable environment for Republicans.
For Casar, and other Texas Democrats, the 2026 elections are shaping up to be a difficult and contentious battle. The redistricting process has put them in a precarious position, and if the new map is approved, they will face an uphill fight to retain their seats in the face of increased GOP opposition.
The redistricting process marks a significant turning point for Texas politics. The GOP’s effort to redraw the district lines is part of a broader strategy to maintain control of the state as it becomes increasingly competitive.
With Democrats increasingly making inroads in traditionally Republican areas, the GOP is determined to secure its dominance in Texas by ensuring that more districts are solidly conservative.
For Casar and other Democratic lawmakers, the redistricting is not just a fight for their political futures—it’s a fight for the direction of the state itself. As Texas becomes more polarized, the redistricting process will play a pivotal role in determining the balance of power in the state and in Washington.
The outcome of this redistricting effort will be closely watched by political analysts and lawmakers across the country. With both parties vying for control of the House, the shifting landscape in Texas could have lasting consequences for the future of American politics.
